THE FALL OF AL QAEDA

France, Great Britain, Germany and the United States

March 21, 2002

On the occasion of a letter that I wrote to the President of the Mexican Academy of Language (corresponding to the Spanish) my synapses triggered, and I began to think about France, about what has been happening lately in the elections there, and in the transformation of that country. It occurred to me that the balance of the world has considerably changed by two events that happened a little more than a decade apart: the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989, and the fall of the Twin Towers in New York in 2001.

The fall of the Berlin Wall resulted in a change in the center of European power, from France to Germany, because the unification of this country, by becoming larger, gave it the predominant force in Europe and in the European Union.

The fall of the Twin Towers demonstrated that when the United States decides to take a path - in this case the fall of Al Qaeda- no other reasoning from any other country counts. As President Bush said: "Either they are with us or they are against us."

The France-Germany pairing has been the engine of Europe. Both countries committed, to creating a new Europe at the end of World War II. The relationship between Kohl and Mitterrand was unique. When could one imagine seeing a German leader openly crying at the funeral of a French president, as Kohl did in the case of Mitterrand, at the Cathedral of Notre Dame?

That pairing has been like a marriage, since both countries are committed to the European project. At the moment, the marriage seems to be in trouble. Germany is clearly the dominant partner. The creation of the euro - which was originally called ecu and was a French idea and resulted in the creation of a European Central Bank - in Frankfurt, not in Paris. The agricultural policies of the two countries are in contradiction to one another. Many other topics are undefined.

Great Britain, always perfidious, sought a rapprochement with France. Mitterrand was very clear with Thatcher: he said that a closer relationship between the two countries was not possible because Britain had a special relationship with the United States.

Attempts have continued. In meetings British Prime Minister Blair and French President Chirac have tried to define a European project. Even though Blair worked in Paris at a bar, and speaks French, this approach has not succeeded. France's strategic vision, which has always been clear and brilliant (such as the creation of De Gaulle's Force de Frappe, which is now being recognized, 40 years later, by the United States) and the exceptional tactical qualities of Great Britain (such as their placement in the market for smart and youthful industrial design) have never had a true connection between the two countries: their visions of the European project have always been conflicting.

How does France relate to the United States? In a European way? Or in an idiosyncratic and iconoclastic way? France has always seen itself as a superpower.

The reality is that the only hyperpower (like the hypermarchés in France!) is the United States. The world has never seen anything like the American phenomenon in terms of power and universal influence. For France this is a problem. France's ambition was always to be the world hyperpower. Although Chirac worked in a restaurant when he studied in the United States and speaks English, this has not brought the two countries closer together, largely because Bush's policy, until September 11, was a unilateral one. Now Bush intends to establish a multilateral relationship in the world, yet nobody believes it, and in France this concept is attacked by the vocal minority.

Some statistics are interesting. When the French were asked what feelings they had towards the United States 49% said they felt indifferent; 41% said they felt sympathy; 9% indicated antipathy. This 9%, however, is the most vocal, most political, most influential percent and the one that exerts influence on 49% of indifferent people.

What will happen then with the election in France? In a cartoon of the political cartoonist Planus on the front-page of Le Monde, Chirac and Jospin are reading each other’s political platform. Both are saying, "I would vote for him." That is, there is no difference. The French don't know how to vote. They are totally undecided. This is the first time in France that citizens do not care about making a choice.

To wrap up, two data can make us think something else:

• Lady Thatcher has just written a book proposing that Britain withdraw from the European Union.

• In France, a quarter of the population under the age of 20 is Muslim.

Topics to think about. Or not?

MAC 210302